he British Government has a tendency to focus on sector specific issues whilst failing to recognize that productivity is an economy-wide problem that is highly interconnected
It is also widely accepted that increases in productivity – achieving more output from less input – is what drives prosperity. This is why the ‘productivity problem’ has been a central focus of government policy and investment in recent years. However, it’s become even more critical in recent months as a result of the challenges facing the UK in the face of Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson has made clear that in his mind the key to solving this challenge is prioritizing sectors that are highly skilled and high growth – such as science, technology and the green economy. Johnson has made comments about turning the UK into a ‘scientific powerhouse’ and a key part of the government’s agenda has been to ‘level up’ all parts of the country.
We’ve seen sector specific deals carried out – including in fields such as AI – and there has been a number of innovation policy investments announced.
However, a new report out this week released by think tank Institute for Government (IfG) provides some interesting food for thought – at a top level, IfG debunks the myth that a decline in manufacturing investment is the source of the UK’s productivity pain, pulling data that suggests that even if the UK had kept up with Germany’s growth in manufacturing, that it would only account for a fraction of productivity growth.
Equally, it rightly notes that productivity can’t be tackled on a sector by sector basis. So many of the challenges associated with improving productivity are interconnected and economy-wide, and policy intervention should instead focus on agendas that cut through all aspects of the UK’s economy.
And whilst the government appears to want to be at the center of technology creation, it would do better to focus on technology adoption and structural changes within sectors to drive productivity. In addition, focusing on improving skills across the UK would have a greater impact than being the country that cracks the next big high-tech innovation.
IfG notes that it must be tempting for government and policy makers to place the blame for a decline in productivity on the UK’s failure to nurture high-productivity sectors, favouring a growth in service-led sectors.
Hence we see the Treasury, for instance, making calls to focus on “high-growth, innovative sectors” – the implication being that these are the ‘right’ sectors for the UK’s future. But in reality it’s not so black and white. Sectors such as retail and hospitality actually have the potential to deliver high levels of productivity gains, which has been helped by the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic and the adoption of new tech and business models.
Equally, the research shows that this is an international trend and whilst some of the UK’s peers may have outperformed in certain areas, when you look at the totality of the impact on productivity, the likes of the US, Germany and Italy are facing the same problems. The IfG report notes:
Moreover, the country’s shift towards services should not be portrayed as a productivity-sapping strategic mistake. The shift was seen across many countries and is natural during the evolution of advanced economies which, as they age, spend more on services. The government should treat it as an invitation to take services – even the traditionally low value-adding ones – more seriously as a potential source of growth. Differing sectoral shapes are not sufficient to explain the regional gaps in productivity that preoccupy policy makers. Although the UK has shifted employment away from manufacturing to some lower-value services, the timing of this shift does not match the worst spell of productivity weakness that began after 2008. Even if the UK could have stemmed the erosion of its manufacturing share, as Germany has managed to do, most or all the past decade’s weakness would remain.
Sector boundaries are not the key
The IfG’s sector analysis shows that the shortfall in productivity growth that occurred post-2008 was skewed towards a few industries, such as ICT and professional and business services, as well as the financial sector. But weaker performance was seen right across the economy – most employees worked in a sector that grew less in the 10 years after 2008 than in the 10 before – and, as such, economy-wide perspectives are needed.
IfG states that sector boundaries are “often arbitrary” and the sectors themselves are interdependent. It adds:
A narrow sector-by-sector examination risks focusing upon individual economic areas to the detriment of macroeconomic insight – to ‘miss the wood for the trees’. The state of aggregate demand is one variable that might be overlooked. A broad productivity crisis hit many developed countries at the same time as the financial crisis damaged global demand and confidence. Sharp movements in aggregate demand land unevenly across sectors and are often highly correlated with shifts in productivity. The persistence of these effects must be considered before the performance of any sector is accorded a purely sectoral diagnosis.
The report goes on to say that whilst Johnson’s government puts a heavy emphasis on innovation policy as a tool for driving economic progress, the sector-level relationships between technology, innovation, productivity and livelihoods are far from straightforward.
In essence, it states, more technology does not always lead to a large market, more pay or higher jobs. You only have to look at the US economy which has generated $6 trillion of extra equity value in just four giant digital tech companies.
What’s the solution?
If a sector by sector approach isn’t what’s needed, how should policy makers be thinking about improving productivity? The key message to take away is that productivity cannot be solved by focusing on certain sectors, such as high technology. The efforts need to be much broader in scope.
The objectives also need to be considered. For instance, the report adds:
It is also a mistake to see growth or productivity as the only objective for innovation. Energy sector innovation is a clear example; this is going to be vital for the transition to net carbon zero and, done well, will have a positive effect on myriad other parts of the economy. But it might do this without having any direct perceptible effect on the GDP figures, as lower CO2 emissions do not count towards GDP.
Some of the things the government is currently doing will likely have a greater impact on productivity than its sector-specific deals and investments, and these should be scaled up. For instance, the government’s ‘Help to Grow’ scheme, which is aimed at improving management skills, or its policy interventions to encourage the adoption of digital tools across all businesses – these are far more strategic in achieving higher productivity gains. Again, it’s the *use* of technology that will make the most fundamental difference, not its creation.
As noted above, we’ve seen drastic changes in recent months across the economy as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic – the changes happening in retail and office spaces would have likely taken years to occur without the ‘shock’, but could well have positive impacts on productivity.