• Jeff Bezos, in an interview with CNBC, dismissed warnings that AI would replace skilled professionals like radiologists or software engineers.
  • “What’s really gonna happen is it’s gonna elevate all of these people,” said Bezos.
  • “The analogy I give to you is, you’ve been digging out the basement of your house with a shovel and somebody’s about to hand you a bulldozer.”
  • Americans are deeply divided in their assessments of AI’s impact on the workplace:
    • Nearly two-thirds of U.S. adults polled in 2024 predicted that AI would lead to fewer jobs over the next 20 years, compared with 39% among AI experts, defined as “individuals whose work or research relates to AI.”
    • Experts were four times as likely as the general public to predict AI will create more jobs than it eliminates (19% vs. 5%).
Why This Is Important
  • Throughout history workers have feared permanent displacement by new technologies, only to find that industries adapt and create new jobs in the process.
  • Many tech leaders argue AI is no different.
  • Still, workers and AI sceptics fear displacement by a technology that, unlike the steam engine or lightbulb, is being trained to learn like a human.
  • Business leaders such as Bezos are overwhelmingly optimistic about the availability of jobs in the AI era.
  • 47% of executives and senior human resources professionals said AI use increased entry-level hiring at their firm last year, compared with 13% who said it decreased hiring, according to a recent survey from Strada Education Foundation.
  • Employers were only slightly less optimistic about this year, with 46% predicting an increase in hiring and 17% predicting a decline.
  • Bezos went as far as predicting the proliferation of AI in workplaces would actually cause a labour shortage.
  • “We’re gonna have so much productivity in our economy that, for example, this is one effect, a lot of people who have two-earner income households, one of the people is gonna drop out of the workforce”
  • “AI-driven productivity gains should allow companies to do more with less, driving down prices in the process.”
  • “I predict we’ll actually have deflation.”
  • “Because of the productivity gains, you’re going to be able to afford things.”
  • Historically, unemployment driven by technological change has tended to be temporary, with displaced workers eventually finding jobs in new fields.
  • According to Goldman Sachs economists, about 60% of U.S. workers are currently in positions that didn’t exist in 1940, suggesting 85% of all employment growth since then may be attributed to jobs birthed by new technologies.
  • Spikes in unemployment stemming from new technologies tend to fade within two years, the economists found.
  • Still, anxiety about being replaced by AI is growing, especially among younger workers.
  • Eric Schmidt, the former CEO of Google, was booed when he mentioned AI during a commencement speech at the University of Arizona over the weekend.
  • The share of Americans under age 35 saying now is a good time to find a job declined by 27 percentage points between 2023 and 2025.
  • The job market has become particularly difficult for recent college graduates in industries with the greatest AI exposure.
  • Major tech companies have shed tens of thousands of jobs over the past year, frequently citing AI’s impact on productivity and the need to free up cash for AI investments.

 

  • Long-term, Bezos expects AI adoption to streamline drudge work, leaving humans more time to focus on strategy, problem-solving, and creativity.
  • A software engineer’s “real job is gonna be identifying problems and helping to solve them, rather than writing code line-by-line.”
  • “The work is gonna be done at a higher level,” Bezos said.
  • “It’s gonna be done with a bulldozer instead of a shovel, and that’s gonna be a good thing.”

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‘The 19C paradox that gives hope for jobs in the world of ChatGPT’

 

Extracts from an article in The Times by Mehreen Khan, economics editor

  • A century on from the invention of the steam engine, Britain was still consuming vast amounts of coal
  • Despite more efficient, cheaper technologies that required less energy to run, coal consumption was still soaring rather than collapsing
  • Big efficiency gains in a new technology led to a long term rise in consumption and use cases rather than causing its obsolescence
  • Satya Nadella, CEO Microsoft – “As AI gets more efficient and accessible, we will see its use skyrocket”
  • Torsten Slok, chief economist, Apollo – “Giving AI tools to knowledge workers will lower the cost of doing some tasks – eg radiologists, call centre workers, travel agents – demand is already rising”
  • When things get cheaper, demand goes up
  • When the cost of professional work falls, the addressable market expands – and the total number of firms and workers in the field grows
  • ‘Excel’ didn’t put accountants out of work – it increased them by dramatically lowering the cost of financial analysis – the shift is from grunt data analysis/ modelling work to judgement, creativity and emotional intelligence
  • We will value qualities that are more ‘human’ and less machine-like
  • So what’s the split between AI augmenting jobs versus replacing them?
    • Declining where AI can do more of the core tasks done by humans – telephone operators, insurance clerks, bill collectors
    • Rising where AI aids work, cannot replace it, needs interpersonal interaction, physical proximity and human judgement as well as lots of unstructured tasks – jobs in education, judiciary, constructrion managers – an interior designer can use AI for mock-ups but still needs to be on site and available for emergencies, unlike a customer service rep or data entry clerk
  • Teething pains are being felt by graduates and entry-level workers
  • It was the same with the Luddites – workers destroyed textile machines they feared would replace them as industrial wages stagnated, even as productivity rocketed
  • Some jobs will be lost but others created as a result of AI