- Most developed and developing economies see productivity improvement as the biggest peacetime issue they face if they are to continue to improve the standard of living of all their citizens – especially since their (apparent) national productivity levels have been flatlining for a decade or more
- Most of them are also concerned about their demographics – an increasing proportion of older and retired people thus needing to be supported by a reducing number of younger people
- Indeed, the World Health Organisation forecasts that, by the year 2030, one in six adults will be over the age of 60 – and that number rises from 1.4 billion in 2030 to 2.1 billion in 2050 – yet we are underprepared to support this demographic in the workplace.
- So they see the only way to keep everyone happy is not by an ever-increasing number of people, each able to produce the same, but less and less people having to produce more and more
- And to do this they look for silver bullets from new technology, especially having seen the impact of automation, robotics, IT and the emergence of AI with its barely understood but hopefully unlimited potential
- However, any major new technology usually takes years to permeate all levels of business and make a big difference – and, so far, AI seems to be no exception
- So what can and should be considered in the meantime?
- One rarely reads about any leading politician, economist or management consultant banging on about the huge short-term potential lying dormant in most organisations if, before rushing headlong into promised lands of new technology, they first reviewed what they already had got i.e. could they:
- Cut waste – of time and resources – at least 20% of costs is due to waste in most organisations, large and small, public and private – for some, waste can be more like 50%, but few realise it – AI will have a big role to play here, but only because it replicates what Systems Analysts were finding over 50 years ago when analysing, and so questioning, existing manual processes before they were computerised
- Optimise use of existing resources – too often, businesses rush to invest in latest new technology without first checking whether they could meet all their short-term capacity needs with better organisation of the resources they already have – AI, with its incorporated ‘magical algorithms’, will again replicate the mathematical models used by Operational Research scientists and their like over the last 50 years to find optimal solutions to organisations’ operating problems
- Hence it was good to read Jenni Russell’s article in The Times entitled:
‘We’re wasting the over-50s – give them jobs’
- Jenni says: ‘The drive to push people back into work focuses on the young and long-term sick (many genuinely so, many not) but overlooks a precious resource’ – indeed she’s ‘amazed at what’s missing’
- And that missing precious resource is what we call ‘The Silver Army’ – the experienced, knowledgeable people who have retired, don’t want to climb any more ladders or greasy poles, have no more axes to grind, are glad to be outside office politics but would like some part-time advisory involvement – and don’t need to earn a big salary anymore, just tokens of appreciation for services rendered
- Overall, they’d like to ‘put something back’, do something useful and not just play golf or potter in the garden
- In the UK alone, there are many thousands of such people – untapped silos of priceless knowhow readily available to all sectors to provide managers at all levels with valuable honest advice and shoulders to lean on
- Already, some companies offer ‘mentoring services’ and so utilise some of this dormant resource but most retired professionals just twiddle their fingers and gently fade away
- A precis of Jenni Russell’s article follows, tweaked slightly given we now have a new Labour government:
The Tories sought to push people back to work via a combination of carrots, sticks, threats and targeted support aimed at the sick and reluctant, the mentally ill and long-term claimants – they neglected a swathe of people who are willing, some desperate, to use their talents but can’t find a workplace that will even reply to their applications.
They are the largely invisible, reluctantly unemployed – the diligent, skilled, experienced over-50s, many too well-off to claim benefits – ageism is writing them off – most applications disappear into a void – automated or rigid application systems rule them out before they can even attempt to petsuade bosses of their qualities – resilience, resourcefulness, perceptiveness, judgement – that would make them an excellent candidate for many roles.
Hence one finds successful professionals and businessmen and women wasting away, doing nothing useful for anybody but themselves
Such experiences are both individual disasters and a looming national crisis – in the UK alone:
- The over-50s are already a third of the workforce and that proportion is rising inexorably
- Currently there are some 28 pensioners for every 100 workers
- By 2041 there will be 35
Bains, the management consultancy, reported that: “The uncomfortable truth is that age-related workplace discrimination is widespread”
The UK is short of skilled workers – throwing people onto a scrap heap is extravagant lunacy – it turns them from contributors into dependents
It is wasteful in another sense, too – UK immigration is forecast to soar above current record levels – bringing new people in increases pressure on land, houses, services, sewage – far better to use those we have to their full capacity.
So far the government has has a laissez-faire attitude to the older worker – they have largely left the market to sort itself out – that won’t do – they should bring in tougher discrimination laws, as in Singapore, where age-related sacking is illegal – companies should get tax-incentives for employing over-50s – skills training should be as routine for over-50s as for younger ones – older workers who wish or need to should be allowed to work fewer days, or step down in the hierarchy to operate at a lower level.
For the state to let the market end many people’s working life a decade earlier is foolish, blind and unjust.
P.S.1 Of course, in the not too distant future, and with most perhaps working a 15 hour week (as Keynes forecast) mostly from home and using AI, the need for numbers of people may well become less and less – but the need for wisdom and experience will grow as AI picks up most grunge work, supports youngsters for new ideas and creativity, and increasingly generates the revenue and profits needed to fund a nation’s standard of living – SoL
P.S.2 By that time, most people may have an acceptable SoL and have moved on to climbing QoL (Quality of Life) ladders – they will need positive, fulfilling things to do to fill their days and stop them going bonkers – but that’s another problem for another day, not now